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National Security
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National Security is a policy-oriented quarterly journal of the Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi. It focuses on the principal issues and trends in India’s increasingly complex national and international security environment. The journal carries holistic analysis and informed debates on all aspects of security and has emerged as an important forum for top thinkers, policy experts, and academics from India and abroad. It also aims to meet the needs of an international readership that is increasingly interested in India’s security policies as its role in world affairs grows. Recent issues of the journal have covered a wide variety of vital themes: India’s two-front security challenge, the Indo-Pacific and Quad, developments in China and India-China relations, Pakistan, nuclear doctrine, BIMSTEC, the status of Tibet, defence policy, terrorism, the scientific revolution and security, and nationalism.
ProQuest
Editor-In-Chief
- Arvind Gupta, Director, Vivekananda International Foundation, Former Deputy National Security Advisor, B-24, IFS Apartment, Mayur Vihar Ph. 1, Delhi -110091 E: director@vifindia.org
Editor
- Sujit Dutta, Distinguished Fellow V.I.F., Prof., Nelson Mandela Centre for Peace & Conflict Resolution (retd), and MK Gandhi Chair in Peace & Conflict Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia, N.D. Former Senior Fellow, Inst. for Def. Studies & Analysis New Delhi E: sujitdutta@vifindia.org, nationalsecurity@vifindia.org
Editorial Committee
- C. D. Sahay, Distinguished Fellow, Vivekananda International Foundation Former Secretary (Research and Analysis Wing), Cabinet Secretariat E: sahay@vifindia.org Add: 158-P, Sec 31/32A, Opp Raheja Atlantis, Gurugram (Haryanaa) -122001
- Dilip K. Chakrabarti, Distinguished Fellow, V.I.F. Professor Emeritus, South Asian Archaeology, University of Cambridge E: dilipchakrabarti@vifindia.org Add: Flat No. 20, Uttranchal Apartments, IP Extension, Patparganj Delhi-110092
- Gautam Banerjee, General Editor V.I.F. Former Chief of Staff, Central Command, PVSM, AVSM, YSM, Editor E: editor@vifindia.org Add: P-101, Sispal Vihar Defence Enclave Sohna Road, Sec.-49 Gurugram (Haryana) - 122010
- Ravi Sawhney, Center Head and Senior Fellow, National Security and Strategic , V.I.F. Former Deputy Chief of Army Staff, PVSM and AVSM E: ravisawhney@vifindia.org Add: 4251, Sec. 23A, Gurugram-122017
- Sreeradha Datta, Senior Fellow, V.I.F Former Director Maulana Abul Kalam Azad Institute of Asian Studies, Kolkata E: sreeradhadatta@vifindia.org Add: H 1593, First Floor, Chittranjan Park, New Delhi - 110019
International Advisory Board
- Andrey Kortunov, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council, Moscow
- Aparna Pande, Expert on South Asia, Director, Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia, Hudson Institute, Washington D.C.
- James Jay Carafano, Expert on Military Affairs and U.S National Security, Vice President, Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy, and the E. W. Richardson Fellow, The Heritage Foundation, Washington D.C.
- Dr. James M. Dorsey, Expert on West Asia and the Middle East, Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore
- Kanwal Sibal, Former Foreign Secretary, Analyst, Member of the Advisory Council, Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi
- Prabhat Shukla, Former Diplomat, Analyst, Member of the Advisory Council, Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi
- Tariq Karim, Former Bangladesh Diplomat, Advisor on South Asia Regional Integration at the World Bank
Volume 5 (2022) Issue 3 , (July-2022 to September-2022)
July-September
Contents
Editor’s Note
The Ukraine War and a World in Crisis
Sujit Dutta
Essays
The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and India’s Foreign Policy
Arvind Gupta
Russia-Ukraine, India-Pakistan: Two Existential Conflicts in Eurasia
Andrey Kortunov
Articles
Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and Security in the Indo-Pacific
Tomiko Ichikawa
Russian Military Campaign in Ukraine: Prognosis and Impact
Rakesh Sharma
Southeast Asia and the Ukraine Crisis
Vinod Anand
Africa Watch
Ukraine Crisis and its Impact on Africa
Samir Bhattacharya
Book Review
Securing India’s North-East
PK Khup Hangzo
About the Issue
This special issue of National Security carries a set of excellent essays and articles on the global impact of the Russo-Ukraine conflict. Arvind Gupta, Director of the VIF, explains India's official stance and the factors that have determined it. Andrey Kortunov, the Head of the Russian International Affairs Council, finds similarities in the Russia-Ukraine relationship with India's troubled relations with Pakistan. Tomiko Ichikawa, Director General of the Japan Institute of International Affairs, is extremely critical of Russia, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, for its violation of international law, and the sovereignty of an independent nation-state – the Ukraine. She fears that China would be emboldened to act in a similar manner in the Indo-Pacific.
In his analysis of the war, Lt. Gen. Rakesh Sharma states that the “war was on the horizon” since the 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia, and the training and strengthening of the Ukrainian forces by the NATO that followed. He argues that the conflict underlines that conventional wars are here to stay, and can start off with limited notice. It is a warning to India to be prepared for such actions by its two hostile neighbours. Strategic analyst Vinod Anand writes that the contestation between Russia and the Western alliance in Ukraine and the ongoing US-China rivalry in the Indo-Pacific have impacted Southeast Asia, and the region is deeply concerned. In the Africa Watch series, Samir Bhattacharya explores the impact on Africa and opines that the war and the sanctions on Russia have seriously affected food, energy, fertilizer and defence supplies to Africa that was already struggling to overcome the effects of the pandemic on health and the economy. He warns that the sanctions are hurting Africa while western finance for development are being diverted to deal with the fall out of the Ukraine crisis.
The issue concludes with PK Hangzo's review of a recent book on the changes underway in India's north-east and how they are being viewed and understood by the academics in the region.
Editor’s Note
The Ukraine War and a World in Crisis
by Sujit Dutta
Essays
The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and India’s Foreign Policy
by Arvind Gupta
Russia-Ukraine, India-Pakistan: Two Existential Conflicts in Eurasia
by Andrey Kortunov
Articles
Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and Security in the Indo-Pacific
by Tomiko Ichikawa
DOI: http://doi.org/10.32381/NS.2022.05.03.1
Russian Military Campaign in Ukraine: Prognosis and Impact by Rakesh Sharma
DOI: http://doi.org/10.32381/NS.2022.05.03.2
Southeast Asia and the Ukraine Crisis
by Vinod Anand
DOI: http://doi.org/10.32381/NS.2022.05.03.3
Africa Watch
Ukraine Crisis and its Impact on Africa
by Samir Bhattacharya
DOI: http://doi.org/10.32381/NS.2022.05.03.4
Book Review
Securing India’s North-East
by PK Khup Hangzo
Volume 5 (2022)
Volume 5 (2022) Issue 2 , (April-2022 to June-2022)
Contents:
Editor’s Note
Sustaining Development in the Times of Climate Warming
Sujit Dutta
Essays
The Peril of Crossing Planetary Boundaries
Arvind Gupta
Pathways to Peace and Prosperity through Food Security
Bishow Parajuli
Articles
Protection of Environment and Promotion of Development: The Hindu Wisdom of Sustainable Development
T. V. Muralivallabhan
Glasgow Commitments: Implications for India
Nitya Nanda
India’s Energy Transition: The Case for Hydropower
PK Khup Hangzo
Ending India’s Water Stress: The Road Ahead
Heena Samant
Africa Watch
Political Crisis in Mali: Uneasy Present, Uncertain Future
Samir Bhattacharya
Report
Climate Security in the Bay of Bengal
Garima Maheshwari
Book Review
Whither the Arab World?
Hirak J. Das
About the Issue:
The current Issue of National Security surveys the challenges posed by climate change and the need to create an alternative sustainable development pathway for India. The Issue begins with an essay by Dr. Arvind Gupta which notes the limited achievements of the Glasgow COP-26 summit even as the world faces the threat of crossing 'planetary boundaries' in the climate domain. Shri. Bishow Parajuli, Country Director of the World Food Programme, in his essay explains the lethal impact of the trinity of climate change, the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, and internal conflicts in aggravating hunger and food insecurity across the developing world.
Dr. T. V. Muralivallabhan explores India's ancient wisdom on sustainable development and environmental protection. He argues that Indian philosophical and cultural heritage can enable the country to lead the global efforts for sustainable development. Prof. Nitya Nanda assesses India's climate targets announced at Paris and Glasgow. He argues that while the country is well placed to achieve the targets set in Paris, the road to attaining the higher Glasgow targets for 2030 is likely to be full of challenges.
In his article, PK Khup Hangzo makes a strong case for India to enhance its hydropower production to meet the non-fossil fuel challenge. He also makes the point that hydropower projects can help augment India's national security, especially in the border-States such as Arunachal Pradesh. Heena Samant delves into India's water stress concerns and remedial actions being taken. The scholar emphasises the need for greater public awareness and preparedness regarding water conservation and use.
In the Africa Watch segment, scholar Samir Bhattacharya draws attention to the ongoing civil conflict in the West African state of Mali, while Hirak J. Das reviews an important new book on the political developments in the Arab world. This Issue also carries a report by Dr. Garima Maheshwari on a new study on climate security in the Bay of Bengal.
Editor’s Note
Sustaining Development in the Times of Climate Warming
by Sujit Dutta
Essays
The Peril of Crossing Planetary Boundaries
by Arvind Gupta
Pathways to Peace and Prosperity through Food Security
by Bishow Parajuli
Protection of Environment and Promotion of Development: The Hindu Wisdom of Sustainable Development by T. V. Muralivallabhan
Glasgow Commitments: Implications for India by Nitya Nanda
India’s Energy Transition: The Case for Hydropower by PK Khup Hangzo
Ending India’s Water Stress: The Road Ahead by Heena Samant
Africa Watch
Political Crisis in Mali: Uneasy Present, Uncertain Future
by Samir Bhattacharya
Report
Climate Security in the Bay of Bengal
by Garima Maheshwari
Book Review
Whither the Arab World?
by Hirak J. Das
Volume 5 (2022) Issue 1 , (January-2022 to March-2022)
Contents
Editor’s Note
Assessing India’s Geopolitical Threats
Sujit Dutta
Essays
Pakistan’s National Security Policy : Much Ado About Nothing
Satish Chandra
A Troubled China and Asia’s Growing Anxiety
Sujit Dutta
The China Dream: Divergence of Direction and Destination
Gautam Banerjee
Contours of Escalation in India-China Security Environment
Rakesh Sharma
Understanding the Actions of the PLA Air Force and Regional
Reactions in East Asia
Naval Jagota
Emerging Tensions in the Chinese Economy
Prerna Gandhi
Article
Sinicisation and the Threat of Cultural Genocide in Tibet
Sarada Subhash
Africa Watch
The Geopolitics of Ethiopian Civil War and India’s Task
Samir Bhattacharya
Book Review
China in the Indian Ocean
Gunjan Singh
About The Issue
This current issue of National Security examines the grave security environment around India, especially those flowing from China's unbridled quest for dominance and expansionism. It begins with an essay by India's Former High Commissioner to Pakistan, Satish Chandra, wherein he critically examines Pakistan's recently released National Security Policy. He calls the 'Policy' a failed attempt at image-building since no changes are indicated in its hostile approach towards India, its support for terror groups, or in the dominance of the military in its policy making. Prof. Sujit Dutta, Editor of National Security, in his essay draws attention to the destabilizing impact of the extreme nationalist, belligerent, and expansionist strategic posture of China even as the regime faces multiple domestic challenges and steps up political repression to secure itself. Lt. Gen. Gautam Banerjee analyses the divergence between 'direction and destination' in President Xi Jinping's pursuit of the China Dream, and how this has undermined the progress, security, and stability in Asia.
In his perceptive analysis of the significance of the Chinese aggression in Ladakh, Lt. Gen. Rakesh Sharma explores the strategic context of China's expansionist tendencies and the need for India to build all round capacities to foil the 21 century warfare of the PLA. Analyst Naval Jagota, in his essay on the PLA Air Force, assesses its budgets, roles, holdings, and real-world behaviour in the context of East Asia to anticipate its likely actions in a conflict. Scholar Prerna Gandhi analyzes the many tensions in the post pandemic Chinese economy that could increasingly strain its capacities unless addressed. In her sensitive article, scholar Sarada Subhash argues that China's systematic Sinicisation poses the threat of 'cultural genocide' in Tibet, and the need for international awareness and action.
In a new segment called 'Africa Watch' , scholar Samir Bhattacharya writes on the ongoing civil war in one of the continent's most important countries, Ethiopia, and its significance for the region and India.
Editor’s Note
Assessing India’s Geopolitical Threats
by Sujit Dutta
Essays
Pakistan’s National Security Policy : Much Ado About Nothing
by Satish Chandra
A Troubled China and Asia’s Growing Anxiety by Sujit Dutta
The China Dream: Divergence of Direction and Destination by Gautam Banerjee
Contours of Escalation in India-China Security Environment by Rakesh Sharma
Understanding the Actions of the PLA Air Force and Regional 46-54
Reactions in East Asia
by Naval Jagota
Emerging Tensions in the Chinese Economy by Prerna Gandhi
Article
Sinicisation and the Threat of Cultural Genocide in Tibet
by Sarada Subhash
Africa Watch
The Geopolitics of Ethiopian Civil War and India’s Task
by Samir Bhattacharya
Book Review
China in the Indian Ocean
by Gunjan singh
Volume 3 (2020)
Volume 3 (2020) Issue 4 , (October-2020 to December-2020)
Oct-Dec
Essays
The Politicisation of WHO
by Arvind Gupta
Building a Sustainable Ecology - Housing and Architecture in Mumbai by Samarth Das
Reforms in Agriculture: Promise and Challenges by Atul Sarma and Shyam Sunder
Articles
Responding to COVID 19: India’s trade restrictions and the World Trade Organization
by Varad Choudhary, Rudraksh Lakra and Ayan Gupta
Influence Operations by China by DN Mathur
Perilous Deterrent: Pandemic and the Consequent Re-evaluation of India’s National Security by Souradeep Sen
Book Reviews
The Bangladesh Story - Travails and Triumphs
by Pratim Ranjan Bose
Trump, Xi and the Making of the New Cold War by Prerna Gandhi
Volume 3 (2020) Issue 3 , (July-2020 to September-2020)
Essay
Nursing the economy back to health, post-Covid
by V. Anantha Nageswaran
Articles
World Order in the Post Covid 19: Modi and Kennedy parallel challenges
by Umberto Sulpasso
Design Intervention to Augment Non-Traditional Security by Mihir Bholey
Indian and Russian Engagement in Eurasia: New Areas of Cooperation by NIRMALA JOSHI
How Turkey uses Libya to achieve its foreign policy objectives by Dr Yatharth Kachiar
Wilayat-e-Internet: Islamic State Cyber Caliphate by Anurag Sharma
Book Review
China and the South China Sea Imbroglio
by Teshu Singh
Volume 3 (2020) Issue 2 , (April-2020 to June-2020)
Apr-Jun
Essays
Challenges to the Nuclear order
by Arvind Gupta
Pakistan Once Again - With Terror, Lies and Bomb by Sheel Kant Sharma
Colloquiumes
Indian Nuclear Posture and National Security
by Balraj Nagal
Voices of Change in Indian Nuclear Doctrine –an Analysis
by V K Saxena
Articles
On the Unravelling of Global Nuclear Order
by R.Rajaraman
Changing Nature of Deterrence: The Challenge of Asymmetric Threats by Rajaram Nagappa & N Ramamoorthy
Global Nuclear Developments 2017-2020: Implications for India’s Nuclear Policy by Manpreet Sethi
Pakistan’s Nuclear and Missile Capabilities: Implications for India by Dr Shalini Chawla
Book Reviews
A Rare Insight into India’s Nuclear Programme
by Sheel Kant Sharma
South Asia in the Second Nuclear Age by Jaideep Chanda
Tackling Deterrence Uncertainty in South Asia. by Souradeep Sen
Volume 3 (2020) Issue 1 , (January-2020 to March-2020)
Jan-Mar
Essays
BIMSTEC as a regional organization: Déjà vu or new beginning?
by Shambhu Ram Simkhada
BIMSTEC and its Future: Connecting South and Southeast Asia
by Tariq Karim
BIMSTEC and S & T Cooperation: A Long Way Ahead
by Kapil Patil
Submarines Gain Precedence in Bay of Bengal Naval Order of Battle
by Vijay Sakhuja
Articles
Regional Connectivity and India's BIMSTEC Policy
by Constantino Xavier & Riya Sinha
Bangladesh beyond Borders: Its Trans-Regional Experience in BIMSTEC by Niloy Ranjan Biswas
Sri Lanka and BIMSTEC: Past, Present and Prospects for the Future by Bhagya Senaratne
A New BIMSTEC? : Reforms, Possibilities and Complexities by Angshuman Choudhury
Report
VIF-BIMSTEC Security Dialogue
by SreeradhaDatta
Book Discussion
The Borderlands and Borders of the Indian Subcontinent
by Dilip K Chakrabarti, Abanti Bhattacharya , K. Warikoo
Book Reviews
Exploring new avenues of regionalism in South Asia
by Alakh Ranjan
Conflicting Identities: Travails of Regionalism in Asia by Anurag Sharma
Volume 2 (2019)
Volume 2 (2019) Issue 3 , (July-2019 to September-2019)
Jul-Sep
Essays
Regional and Sub-Regional Constructs within the Indo-Pacific
by Deepa Gopalan Wadhwa
Essay
An Australian view of the Indo Pacific – three big problems and one way forward
by Michael Shoebridge
Essaay
Unpacking the Trump Administration’s New Indo-Pacific Strategy
by Jeff M Smith
Articles
China’s Multilateral Gambit in South Asia
by ASOKE KUMAR MUKERJI
The Geo-political Underpinnings of the "Open and Free Indo-Pacific" Concept by Baladas Ghoshal
Importance of East Africa in Indo-Pacific by NEHA SINHA
Geopolitics of the South Pacific and Opportunities for India by Maitrayee Shilpa Kishore
Book Reviews
The Indo-Pacific in India’s imagination
by Amruta Karambelkar
India and Asia’s Changing Balance of Power by Manish
Indo-Pacific – Diverse Perspectives by Udayan Das
Volume 2 (2019) Issue 2 , (April-2019 to June-2019)
Apr-Jun
Essays
Domestic Knowledge Product: Enhancing Wealth, Welfare and National Security
by Umberto Sulpasso
Disruptive Technologies and India’s Military Modernisation by J P Singh
Rising Role of Artificial Intelligence in Cyber Security by Durga Prakash Devarakonda
Aarticles
Strengthening Food Security through Technologies
by Suhas P Wani, Mukund D Patil & Dhirendra Singh
Decision Intelligence for the Indian Agriculture Sector by Roger Moser
Higher Education Ecosystem’s Preparedness for IR 4.0: An Indian Perspective by K. K. Aggarwal & Avinash C. Sharma
Analyzing Predictions about The Future of Manufacturing and Technology and Their Extension to India... by Alimah Rehan
India's Need for Strategic Minerals by AJEY LELE
Blockchain as the funding foundation for Indian MSME Sector by Pallav Kumar Singh
Book Reviews
Technological Revolution and the Emerging Military Environment
by Anand V.
Humanity in the Age of Data by Prerna Gandhi
Future of War by Anurag Sharma
Volume 2 (2019) Issue 1 , (January-2019 to March-2019)
Jan-Mar
Essays
India in an Age of Uncertainty and Instability
by Satish Chandra
Towards a Rule Based Order in the Indo-Pacific by Arvind Gupta
Assessing India’s Nuclear Doctrine by Amit Sharma
Supreme Court ruling on Gilgit Baltistan: A legacy of unfulfilled promises by Prateek Joshi
Articles
Tibet was Never Part of China Before 1950: Examples of Authoritative pre-1949 Chinese Documents that Prove It
by Hon-Shiang LAU
China’s Policies of Exploitation in Mekong River Region by Vinod Anand
Anti-Terror Laws in India: An Appraisal by Ramanand Garge
Mitigating the threat in space: Chinese military space capability and India’s response by Rahul Krishna & Aradhya Shandilya
Book Reviews
Coping with the Nuclear Shadow
by Arvind Gupta
The Sardar’s Legacy by Shantanu Chakrabarti
Volume 1 (2018)
Volume 1 (2018) Issue 2 , (August-2018 to December-2018)
2018
Colloquium
U.S.- China Rivalry - Global Impact
by P K Basu & Pinaki Bhattacharya
Essays
Understanding China's foreign policy in Xi Jinping’s “New Era”
by Arvind Gupta
Can India and China have a Mutually Beneficial Relationship? by Anil Wadhwa
China’s Growing Presence in the Indian Ocean ~ India’s Options by Satish Soni
Articles
China's Role in the United Nations: Utilitarianism Overshadows Universal Values
by ASOKE MUKHERJI
PLA Reforms under Xi and their Security Implications by S L Narasimhan
China’s Green Innovation Strategy under Xi Jinping by Avinash Godbole
China’s `Mass Incidents’: Declining Numbers or Hidden Data? by Gunjan singh
Book Reviews
Comprehensive Work on Security
by Satish Chandra
Cracking the ‘Fortune Cookie’ of Chinese Power by Rana Divyank Chaudhary
Musharraf and the Price of Kargil by Prateek Joshi
Documents
Emancipate the Mind, Seek Truth from Facts and Unite as one in Looking to the Future,1978
Remarks Made During an Inspection Tour of Shanghai, 1991
Volume 1 (2018) Issue 1 , (January-2018 to August-2018)
Jan-Aug
Colloquium
Two-Front War: What Does it Imply?
by N C Vij, R K Dhowan, K K Nohwar & Krishan Varma
Essay
Securing the Nation: The Indispensability of Institutional Synergy
by Arvind Gupta
Articles
Ruling from the Shadows: The Political Predominance of the Military in Pakistan
by Tilak Devasher
CPEC at Three: Mapping Progress, Stakeholders and Sustainability by Prateek Joshi
Transition in the Middle East: Transition to What? by James M. Dorsey
"Quad” from the Japanese Perspective by Yasushi Tomiyama
Looking Further East: India’s Engagement with the Pacific Island States by Asha Sundaramurthy
Book Reviews
My Frozen Turbulence in Kashmir by Jagmohan, Allied Publishers, 1991
by Satish Chandra
The Spy Chronicles: RAW, ISI and the Illusion of Peace by A. S. Dulat, Aditya Sinha & Asad Durrani, Harper Collins, 2018 by C D Sahay & Prateek Joshi
India’s National Security: Annual Review 2016-17, Edited by Satish Kumar, Routledge, 2018 by Arvind Gupta
India, China, and the World: A Connected History by Tansen Sen, Oxford University Press, 2018 by Gunjan singh
Documents
Statement to Parliament on Nuclear Tests in Pokhran:Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee on 27/05/1998
“Evolution of India’s Nuclear Policy” Paper laid in Parliament by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee on 27/05/1998
Volume 4 (2021)
Volume 4 (2021) Issue 4 , (October-2021 to December-2021)
Oct-Dec. 2021
CONTENTS
Editor’s Note
The Gathering Storm
Sujit Dutta
Essays
Afghanistan: The Taliban Takeover and its Strategic Fallout
Gautam Mukhopadhaya
Utopia and Desire: Biden’s Retreat from Afghanistan
Umberto Sulpasso
What Does the Chinaman Think?
Gautam Banerjee
Technology Ecosystem & National Security
B.M. Suri
Articles
Terror Financing in Kashmir
Abhinav Pandya
Reality of Democracy in India: Contesting False Western Narrative
A. Surya Prakash
The Great Western Social Churn: India Caught in the Crossshairs
Abhijit Iyer-Mitra
Intelligence and Big Tech
Devsena Mishra
Policy Brief
Roadmap for India’s Dominance in Global Shipbuilding
Bhaskar Sengupta and Shantanu Bose
Book Reviews
Indus Basin Uninterrupted
Satish Chandra
Educational Reforms in Saudi Arabia
Hirak J. Das
About The Issue
This issue of National Security explores critical themes in India's emerging security environment by some of India's leading experts. Former Ambassador in Kabul, Gautam Mukhopadhaya in his lead essay discusses the strategic implications of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and warns that a period of conflict both within the country and in the wider region is likely. Offering a different perspective, Umberto Sulpasso argues that the rapid US withdrawal from Afghanistan as a necessary strategy-- reminiscent of the Roman empire's withdrawal from the East-- that frees the US from a war bereft of idealism and therefore unwinnable. Joe Biden can now focus on other urgent domestic and global strategic tasks.
Abhinav Pandya's study focuses on the financing of terror operations in J&K, while Gautam Banerjee warns that Communist China's declared objective of capturing large tracts along India's Northern and Eastern border states poses a serious threat to India. B.M. Suri emphasises that India's security challenges shall continue to demand development of indigenous high technologies and manufacturing based on them.
A. Surya Prakash and Abhijit Iyer-Mitra undertake fact-based critiques of the Western liberal-left campaign against the Modi government and expose the deep intellectual problems and ideological biases that characterise it. Similarly, Devsena Mishra's critique of global Big-Tech's operations points to their roots in the intelligence and defence department's funding of Silicon Valley Start-ups whose commercial success is based on information gathering, thereby posing a threat to India's national security.
A highlight of this issue is a major policy brief by two former senior naval officers, Bhaskar Sengupta and Shantanu Bose, that outlines a strategy to build a world class shipbuilding industry in India to advance its vital industrial, commercial, and military aims. Equally noteworthy is a long review essay by Former Deputy National Security Advisor, Ambassador Satish Chandra on the making of the Indus Water Treaty and its implications for India.
Editor’s Note
The Gathering Storm
Dark clouds that have been gathering on the Indian security horizon since China’s unprovoked aggression in Ladakh last year, have deepened in the past months with the armed overthrow of the elected, internationally recognised Afghan government. The Taliban -- which ironically, seized power with the connivance of the war-weary US, and was actively backed by America’s nemesis China and Russia -- is a conglomerate of the most conservative, Islamic extremists, with many that are sitting in the new cabinet internationally designated as terrorists. The leading powers responsible for maintaining global law, order and security, handed over power and the fate of the hapless Afghan citizens, especially the women and the minorities, to this illegitimate and repressive force. The withdrawal plan was scripted at Doha by the Trump Administration and received the stamp of approval by the liberal Biden Administration in February this year. The US was desperate to leave the country that had trapped it in a long insurgency. It had very good domestic and international reasons to do so. American withdrawal was desirable even for the Afghan people who needed to shape their own fate and end the two-decade long civil war. But the US withdrew its forces with little thought for a post-withdrawal transition plan or the immediate politico-security consequences of a sudden and chaotic departure for the Afghan people and neighbouring countries such as India.
The Afghan Crisis
The security challenges for India and the region have as a result grown manyfold with the entire Pakistan-Afghanistan belt opened-up for jehadi and Islamabad-backed terror operations. The spurt in terrorist attacks on civilians and minorities in Jammu and Kashmir by Pakistan based and trained Islamic terrorists in recent days, and the appeal of religious extremism among some sections in the State are testament to what is portended. The politico-ideological extremism of a victorious Taliban feeds into the conservative Sunni Islamists and terrorist groups everywhere, breathing fresh life into the Haqqani network, Al Qaida, ISIS and such other kindred armed extremist groups. It raises hopes in them that it is possible to succeed if a secure haven is available. For the Taliban, the Haqqani network, the Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, the Hizbul Mujahideen, the Al Qaida and a host of other outfits, the principal benefactor has been Pakistan, which enjoys the backing of China and its diplomatic cover.
The US has always been inordinately indulgent towards its one-time close military ally despite knowing that the Taliban and its partners had a safe sanctuary in Pakistan. In fact, the Taliban had been nurtured, armed and protected by it. It is not a secret that Pakistan has been waging a covert hybrid war against Afghanistan and India, and undermining the US war effort, by using the armed extremist groups. Yet, astonishingly, it continued to receive US largesse and diplomatic silence ... silence because America needed to secure the overt ‘cooperation’ of Islamabad for providing access to American supplies for its forces in land-locked Afghanistan.
India’s former Ambassador in Kabul, - Gautam Mukhopadhaya, in his incisive overview of the strategic implications of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan for the region -- carried in this issue of the journal -- foresees a period of conflict and power struggle within the regime, and a robust return of international terrorism. He holds American soft policy towards Pakistan’s hybrid war spanning over two decades as a major reason for the debacle in Kabul. Scholar Umberto Sulpasso, on the contrary, perceives the gains in his commentary. He argues that Joe Biden’s rapid withdrawal, notwithstanding the immediate problems, is a winning strategic move that releases the US from a war bereft of idealism or ‘utopia’ and therefore unwinnable. In a related study, analyst Abhinav Pandya, based on several years of fieldwork, explores terror financing in Jammu and Kashmir—bulk of it coming through Pakistan to the Islamic extremists and separatists in India’s unfortunate border State.
If peace, security and stability are to be achieved and a regional and humanitarian crisis contained, Afghanistan would need an inclusive government, with the representation of all major segments of its society and politics, constitutional safeguards for the equal rights of women and minorities, and a break on all ties with terror and extremism. India is working for such an outcome in close consultations with the United States and its other Quad partners, Russia and the Central Asian states, and multilaterally at the UN, G-20, SCO, etc. It has simultaneously backed urgent humanitarian aid to reach the Afghan people. The Afghan crisis will clearly continue to fester and engage India and the world in the months ahead.
The China Threat
While the Afghan developments pose a serious threat to the security and stability of the region, and both complicate and serve as a strategic wild card, they do not detract from the wider strategic challenge flowing from the ongoing shift in the global balance of power. The rise of an expansionist and aggressive China is posing a growing threat to India and the leading Indo-Pacific democracies --the US, Japan and Australia, as also Taiwan. Its aggressive behaviour also challenges a rule-based global order that most nations desire. The Indian Foreign Minister, S Jaishankar--articulating the rising concern about the continued military build-up and provocations across the Line of Actual Control by the PLA and its refusal to either abide by the existing military and diplomatic agreements with India or peacefully resolve disputes—recently described China as ‘a clear and present danger.’ In the East, across the Taiwan Straits, East and South China Seas, China’s military actions are similarly spreading insecurity and creating grave global uncertainty. As Gen. Gautam Banerjee in his essay on China’s current strategic thinking argues, the Chinese Communist regime’s formally declared objective of capturing large tracts along India’s Northern and North-Eastern borders poses a serious threat to the very spirit of India and Indian nationhood.
China’s hostile military build-up and aggressive stance necessitates concerted and unified global opposition and deterrence. The Quad summit in Washington DC in September was a significant milestone in enhancing the strategic cooperation among the four Indo-Pacific powers to deal with 21st century challenges. They need to find appropriate ways to deal with this rising security threat—as China initiated conflicts loom over Taiwan, the Indo-Tibetan border, the Senkaku and the South China Sea.
The weakened Western alliance led by the United States is clearly not in a position to thwart the twin challenges emerging from China’s aggressive imperial advances and the fresh lease of life to Islamic extremism, on its own. Moreover, a shared perspective on the nature of threats, a unified strategy, and an agreement on burden sharing are missing. After 30 years of futile and haemorrhaging wars – in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria -- there is war weariness among the American people. It needs major strategic partners, especially in the world’s new strategic pivot -- the Indo-Pacific, to secure the liberal international order and ultimately itself. American hopes for a stable Indo-Pacific significantly rest on the support of its principal allies and strategic partners in the region—Japan, Australia and India. India’s rapid growth, expanding consumer markets, technological advancement and rising military power are crucial for crafting a new global balance of power that would sustain a rules-based cooperative world order as well as thwart China’s hegemonic ambitions. India too needs to deepen its strategic partnerships with the US, Japan, France, Australia—among others, to effectively deal with the rising security challenges posed by China, Pakistan and Islamic extremism. For the first time since Independence the interests of India and the US appear to have coalesced.
The Left-Liberal ‘Spoiler’ Network
Yet even as the strategic communities clearly see the need for building a strong Indo-US partnership as the bedrock of a global democratic alliance with the Quad as its central pillar, a segment of the Western liberal-left forces has made it its mission to undertake a sustained political campaign against the strong, popular and reformist Modi government in India. This is reflected in the negative coverage of India by the leading legacy media, reports of think tanks, human rights and media freedom reports, and writings by a network of Western academics. The latest is a superficial and inaccurate World Hunger Report. All these reports are based on inadequate information, poor understanding, absence of proper field studies and pronounced ideological prejudice. Their synchronised global campaign to show India and its majority Hindu population in an extremely negative light is being undertaken in parallel with anti-Modi groups in India, as well as anti-India forces sympathetic to Islamic extremism, Pakistan and China. Together they feed on each other’s prejudices and propaganda to mount a hostile and persistent political campaign against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and India. While the complex interplay between Indian democracy, nationalism and Hindu cultural assertion under the Modi government can be studied and debated, it is essential that the media and academia undertake an objective assessment of developments in the world’s second largest country. India is undergoing huge multi-dimensional socioeconomic- technological transformations that have enormous global strategic implications. This is a story they have, unfortunately, largely missed. Ironically, the Western liberals engaged in the vilification of the Indian government undermine the very strategic partnership that the US, Australia, UK, France and Europe are trying to forge with the world’s largest democracy to safeguard the liberal world order from China and Islamic extremist forces!
Leading experts on the media and on Indian democracy, A. Surya Prakash and Abhijit Iyer-Mitra in their searing critique of the Western liberal-left campaign against the Indian Government, expose the deep intellectual rot, socio-political disruptions and ideological biases that followed the decline of Enlightenment in the West. They highlight the ideological stance of the left-liberals in the West and the many prejudices and even falsehoods on which their campaign is based. Their work is complemented by Devsena Mishra’s critique of US Big-Tech’s global operations. She points to their roots in the intelligence and defence department’s funding of Silicon Valley Start-ups that continue to shape their information gathering. The unbridled and unregulated ‘freedom’ claimed by these giant private tech companies to pursue their commercial interest and their invisible ties to the security establishment of their home countries, she argues, seriously undermines India’s national security and must be addressed.
Exploring Diverse Themes
On the maritime and industrial domain, former naval officers Bhaskar Sengupta and Shantanu Bose contribute a valuable new policy brief laying out the roadmap for India to become a leading global Shipbuilding power—naval and commercial—leveraging its noteworthy naval shipbuilding capabilities. B.M. Suri, in his essay, underlines that India’s national security challenges will continue to place critical demands on indigenous high technologies and manufacturing based on them.
Finally, in a detailed review of an excellent new book on the making of the Indus Water Treaty, former Deputy National Security Advisor, Ambassador Satish Chandra analyses the historical, political, diplomatic and international factors that led to the World Bank mediated Agreement between India and Pakistan on the sharing of the Punjab rivers, despite being deeply flawed and against India’s interests. The segment ends with a review by scholar Hirak Das of a new study on Saudi Arabia’s educational reforms
This issue of National Security lays out the multiple challenges that are gathering on the Indian security front and the need for India to craft appropriate and urgent strategic responses to secure itself.
Prof. Sujit Dutta
Editor, National Security
by Sujit Dutta
Essays
Afghanistan: The Taliban Takeover and its Strategic Fallout
by Gautam Mukhopadhaya
Utopia and Desire: Biden’s Retreat from Afghanistan
by Umberto Sulpasso
What Does the Chinaman Think? by Gautam Banerjee
Technology Ecosystem & National Security by B.M. Suri
Terror Financing in Kashmir by Abhinav Pandya
Reality of Democracy in India: Contesting False Western Narrative by A. Surya Prakash
The Great Western Social Churn: India Caught in the Crossshairs by Abhijit Iyer-Mitra
Intelligence and Big Tech by Devsena Mishra
Policy Brief
Roadmap for India’s Dominance in Global Shipbuilding
by Bhaskar Sengupta and Shantanu Bose
Book Reviews
Indus Basin Uninterrupted
by Satish Chandra
Educational Reforms in Saudi Arabia by Hirak J. Das
Volume 4 (2021) Issue 3 , (July-2021 to September-2021)
July-September
Articles
Belt and Road at the Cross-Roads: Imperial Ambitions and Blowback
by Sujit Dutta
Periphery, Vulnerability and the Belt and Road Initiative by Abanti Bhattacharya
China Pakistan Economic Corridor: Domestic Trajectory and Contested Geopolitics by Prateek Joshi
Bangladesh and Belt Road Initiative: Unfolding Possibilities by Sreeradha Datta
The China Myanmar Economic Corridor: A Reality Check by Jaideep Chanda
Book Reviews
A Sensitive Account of the Brave Gurkhas
by Arvind Gupta
Preparing for the 21st Century Battles
by P. K. Chakravorty
Volume 4 (2021) Issue 2 , (April-2021 to June-2021)
Apr-Jun
Essays
The Contours of Biden’s Foreign-Policy
by Arvind Gupta
Re-energising Indo-US Defence Technology Cooperation
by S. Guruprasad
The Wrinkle in US-India Strategic Alignment by Walter Lohman
India and the Biden Administration
by Kanwal Sibal
Articles
An Agenda For India-US Relations in a Biden Presidency
by ARUN K. SINGH
Prospects of India-US Defence Cooperation by Anil Ahuja
Biden Administration and the Indo-Pacific Axis
by K.P. Vijayalakshmi
The United States And India: A Digital Partnership in Need of a Strategy by Arjun Kang Joseph & Rudra Chaudhuri
Book Review
Combating China’s Political Warfare: An American Analysis
by Satish Chandra
Volume 4 (2021) Issue 1 , (January-2021 to March-2021)
Jan-Mar
Essays
Rescuing the Nation from History: Implications of Indian Historiography for National Security
by Arpita Mitra
The Early Concept of Bharatavarsha by Rupendra Kumar Chattopadhyay & Arkaprava Sarkar
Reimagining Multilateralism : The Ethos and Philosophy of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam by Arvind Gupta
Articles
Nationalism in the Study of Ancient Indian History
by Dilip K. Chakrabarti
How the Ancient Indian Vīṇā Travelled to Other Asian Countries: A Reconstruction though Scriptures, Sculptures, Paintings and Living Traditions by Piyal Bhattacharya and Shreetama Chowdhury
Potential of Geospatial Technologies as a Cognitive and Spatio-visual tool for Mapping the Past by M B Rajani & Shalini Dixit
Book Reviews
Kautilya’s Arthashastra: Fusion of the Philosophical and the Strategic
by Kajari Kamal
Comparing India and China, but not without Western biases
by Abanti Bhattacharya
Research Articles (Refereed)
Submissions should be approximately 6,000-8,000 words (not including notes and referencing). The Manuscript submitted should be an original piece of work. The Manu-script once under consideration should not be submitted anywhere else for publications. The Article will be reviewed by the Editor, and upon his/her assessment it will be forwarded for peer review. Lengthy footnotes are strongly discouraged. Authors are requested to use Chicago Style referencing. An Abstract of not more than 200 words, as well as a list of keywords. Essays (Non-Refereed)(Non-Refereed)
The Essays should be approximately 3,000-4,000 words (not including notes and references). Authors should refrain from exceeding the world limit mentioned. The Essays submitted should be an original work. The Essay once under consideration should not be submitted anywhere else for publishing. The Essay will be reviewed by the Editor. There will be no peer review for any Essay submitted. Lengthy footnotes are discouraged. Authors are requested to use Chicago Style Referencing.Book Reviews
Book Reviews should not exceed the word limit of more than 2,500 words. In case the word limit is exceeded, it will be considered in exceptional cir-cumstances. The top of the first page of the book review submitted should contain the following details in the order mentioned below; • Title of the Book • Name of the author/ editor/ translator (In Capital letters) • Publisher’s Name, city • Price • 13 digit ISBN number • The year of publication Number of pages in the book The Book Review will be assessed by the Editor. Contributors are requested not to paraphrase or quote directly from the book they are reviewing. If the contributor is quoting from another book other than the one which is being reviewed, they are requested to mention the following: • Title of the book • Name of the author • Year of the publication If the contributors are quoting from a journal or a magazine they are requested to mention the following: • Title of the journal/magazine/newspaper • Title of the article • Name of the author • Volume and Issue DateNational Security is committed to maintain a high standard of original writings, argumentation, and research. Towards this end it follows the following policies:
1. Manuscript submitted to the journal should be original contributions not published or submitted elsewhere, including open access on-line publications/ web portals. The data used need to be authentic and not misrepresented in any manner to support the conclusions.
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Introduction
National Security is a policy-oriented quarterly journal of the Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi. It focuses on the principal issues and trends in India’s increasingly complex national and international security environment. The journal carries holistic analysis and informed debates on all aspects of security and has emerged as an important forum for top thinkers, policy experts, and academics from India and abroad. It also aims to meet the needs of an international readership that is increasingly interested in India’s security policies as its role in world affairs grows. Recent issues of the journal have covered a wide variety of vital themes: India’s two-front security challenge, the Indo-Pacific and Quad, developments in China and India-China relations, Pakistan, nuclear doctrine, BIMSTEC, the status of Tibet, defence policy, terrorism, the scientific revolution and security, and nationalism.
Topics
Important and fundamental areas of Political Science & International Affairs
Subject Covered
Important and fundamental areas of Political Science & International Affairs
Instructions to Authors
Submit Your Article
EDITOR (Sujit Dutta, E-mail: sujitdutta@vifinida.org ; national security@vifindia.org),
Frequency
4 issues per year. issues per year.