Sri Lanka’s Strategic Calculus in Bay of Bengal Security, Trade, and Economic Cooperation

By : Thedini Herath, Shayan Peris

Page No: 251-267

Abstract
This paper examines Sri Lanka’s strategic calculus amid intensifying great power competition in the Bay of Bengal within the broader Indo-Pacific framework. Encompassing security, economic, and institutional dimensions, this study interrogates how Sri Lanka navigates complex bilateral dependencies to maintain strategic autonomy. Drawing upon contemporary small state theory, the research demonstrates how geographic positioning enables diplomatic leverage beyond structural constraints. The analysis reveals that Sri Lanka’s strategic autonomy operates through active management of transactional dependencies across India’s defence partnerships, China’s Belt and Road investments, and selective US maritime engagement. Key findings indicate that Sri Lanka operates within progressively narrowing margins. While Sri Lanka’s geographic position provides significant leverage, deepening technological and financial dependencies increasingly constrain strategic choices through infrastructure control and conditional financing arrangements.The study argues that sustained strategic relevance requires transitioning from transactional balancing toward institutionalised strategic management through dependency diversification and regional institutional engagement. This research contributes to small state theory by illuminating how geographic advantage provides strategic leverage while revealing constraints imposed by economic vulnerabilities in contested maritime environments.

Authors
Thedini Herath is a final year undergraduate student at the University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka, majoring in BA (hons) in International Studies.
Shayan Peris is a graduate of the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam in The Netherlands, holding a B.Sc. in Political Science: Global Politics.
 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.32381/JIOS.2025.33.02.8