The US-Israel-Iran War and the Changing Security Dynamics in the Persian Gulf Region: Implications for India

By : Deepika Saraswat

Page No: 308-322

Abstract
The second US-Israeli attack on Iran, and Iran’s horizontal escalation against the Gulf States have long-term implications for the US-led security architecture in the Persian Gulf. Iran’s ability to wage a war of attrition against the Gulf States, and its control of the Strait of Hormuz have further securitised their view of Iran. As security and deterrence become prime concerns, the Gulf States will be more determined to diversify their security partnerships, strengthen their national defence capabilities and autonomy, and recalibrate their long-standing security relationship with the USA, as defined by US security bases in exchange for ‘security guarantees’. The Gulf States will likely adopt divergent approaches to security and technological cooperation with Israel, which is widely seen as striving for region wide military dominance.

The second US-Israeli attack on Iran, and Iran’s horizontal escalation against the Gulf States have long-term implications for the US-led security architecture in the Persian Gulf. Iran’s ability to wage a war of attrition against the Gulf States, and its control of the Strait of Hormuz have further securitised their view of Iran. As security and deterrence become prime concerns, the Gulf States will be more determined to diversify their security partnerships, strengthen their national defence capabilities and autonomy, and recalibrate their long-standing security relationship with the USA, as defined by US security bases in exchange for ‘security guarantees’. The Gulf States will likely adopt divergent approaches to security and technological cooperation with Israel, which is widely seen as striving for region wide military dominance. to contribute to de-escalation and enduring stability in the Persian Gulf region, including the maritime choke point of the Strait’ of Hormuz.

Author
Deepika Saraswat is an Associate Fellow with the West Asia Centre at MP-IDSA, New Delhi.
 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.32381/IFAJ.2025.20.4.2